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Beijing has deployed its coast guard into the waters of the Senkaku islands and military drones past remote Japan's territory as Beijing escalates tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its ships carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also claimed by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the islands but the latest activity occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

China claims Taiwan as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. Taiwan’s government and citizens categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the United States and other partner nations including Japan, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was likely the maritime patrol, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, appearing to go unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are not rare, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added Taiwan had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from China since Takaichi made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by stating that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other powers, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.